The Oberlin Review
<< Front page News March 7, 2008

Primary Inconclusive
Political News Analysis


Every twist, turn and up and down in the current election is making CNN the best reality show in TV history. Political junkies are mainlining any piece of information they can find from TV, newspapers and blogs, but for those people not getting updates sent to their Blackberrys, the election may appear to be one big mess.

As expected, McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination in Tuesday’s primaries. Huckabee gave his concession speech and withdrew, and Obama and Clinton called to congratulate McCain. Cheers to John, but moving on…

How to make sense of the no-holds-barred cage fight that is the Democratic primaries, the problems with pledged delegates and superdelegates, the political muckraking and, most importantly, where all of it is going from here. Not that anybody really knows the answer to the last bit, but everybody likes supposing.

The best place to start is with the simple facts. Clinton recently came back from an 11-state losing streak with a win in Rhode Island, followed shortly by key wins in the major states of Texas and Ohio. The effect of these wins on the total pledged delegate count was minimal, as Obama still leads by 86 delegates. In the race to the magical 2,025 delegates and to clinch the nomination, Obama has approximately 1,456 to Clinton’s 1,370. Though still down, Clinton now has the necessary momentum to stay in the race, thanks to these wins.

There are still 611 pledged delegates to be decided in the remaining state primaries. Barring an apocalyptic political meltdown from one of the candidates, neither will receive the required 2,025. Because pledged delegates are awarded proportionately, both candidates will most likely remain well shy of 2,000, forcing the Democratic candidates to turn to superdelegates as their only hope in winning the candidacy.

Superdelegates are just that. They are 795 members of the Democratic party — former presidents, vice presidents, governors and other party leaders — whose votes count more than yours. While pledged delegates represent the wishes of approximately 10,000 voters at the convention, superdelegates’ votes are weighed equally to those of the pledged delegates. Unlike pledged delegates, superdelegates are not tied to the popular vote and can choose whichever candidate they want. They are also notorious for changing their minds.

The last time superdelegates chose the nominee was in 1984, when Walter Mondale held a slight lead over Gary Hart, but neither candidate had enough pledged delegates to seal the nomination. The superdelegates chose to side with the popular vote and backed Mondale, who then lost to Reagan in the general election.

Today, Obama has a slight lead, but nobody is sure how the superdelegates will vote. The vast majority of superdelegates, by definition, are Washington insiders and therefore tend to favor other Washington insiders. Or at least that is what Clinton sure as hell hopes.

Though some are calling for Clinton to concede, the election is far from over and both Obama and Clinton’s campaigns are now in overdrive. Clinton is rolling up her sleeves and doing her best to break down Obama’s image. The infamous “3 a.m. Phone Call” ad attacking Obama’s political experience proved effective in Tuesday’s primaries. Many similar ads are likely to come.

The media is also shifting its position on Obama. There have been many implications from politicians and the media alike that Obama has received a free pass from the press.

On March 3, however, reporters asked heated questions in a San Antonio press conference, signaling that the easy ride was over. Obama was questioned over his senior economic adviser, Auston Goolsbee, who promised Canadian officials that Obama’s anti-NAFTA rhetoric was just “political positioning.” 

Questions were also raised over Obama’s relationship with the large land developer Tony Rezko, who is on trial for extortion and wire fraud. Obama ended up cutting the conference short, pleading, “Come on guys; I answered like eight questions. We’re running late.”

Despite the attacks, Obama’s message to voters has not changed. He is still seen as the new face and change the White House so desperately needs and, of course, he does have the lead. Clinton’s only chance for the nomination is to poke holes in Obama’s image and finish the primaries strong.

If Clinton does that, she will have a shot to win over the superdelegates. During his winning streak, many superdelegates chose to support Obama. Clinton is now focusing on the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, hoping that a win will increase her momentum into the last two large states, Indiana and North Carolina. If she wins these states, superdelegates might be swayed to her side, choosing to support the candidate who finishes the primaries strong.

Though Obama will most likely have the lead going into the convention, Hillary will make the case that she has won most of the major states, is gaining popularity and, given her experience, is the more electable candidate. Obama hopes that the superdelegates will side with the popular vote and give him the nomination.

Democratic leaders rarely want to go against popular opinion, but given the Herculean power of the Clinton political machine, the superdelegates could go either way. As the primary season nears an end, Hillary must keep up her momentum and grind Obama into the dirt if she hopes to sway enough superdelegates to her side to grab the nomination.

They say politics is a blood sport and this match-up is proving to be a bare knuckle “Rumble in the Jungle.”


 
 
   

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