Parity rules today’s NFL. Franchises such as the Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals and the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers all went from losing seasons in 2002 to being contenders in 2003. Meanwhile, the New York Giants, Oakland Raiders and Atlanta Falcons all came into training camp last season with playoff hopes only to find themselves playing out the string by December. Injuries, free agency and the difficult schedules of the previous year’s overachievers all factor in this up-and down world of the NFL.

This competitive climate is enough to make the New England Patriots’ two Super Bowl titles in the past three years seem like domination. The Patriots cemented their spot at the top of the NFL food-chain in 2003, thanks to the league’s stingiest defense, which allowed only 14.9 points per game, over a full point less than the second place Cowboys. Bill Belichik is arguably the league’s best coach right now. The Pats’ front office has been able to construct a strong, if aging, core of defensive players and has been able to keep them together despite the pressures of the salary cup. New England does not have the same offensive firepower of Indianapolis, but the fact that they have been playing together under the same system for several years and also their elite coaching make them my pick to repeat as Super Bowl champions. The following is a division by division breakdown of the upcoming NFL season, in predicted order of finish:

AFC EAST – (1) New England Patriots – Coaching, defense and a veteran core make them early favorites for the 2005 Super Bowl. (2) New York Jets – A younger, revamped defense plus a full season of Chad Pennington with Curtis Martin and Santana Moss at his disposal spell a solid season for Gang Green. (3) Buffalo Bills – first-year head coach Mike Mularkey takes over a team that has some offensive potential in veteran QB Drew Bledsoe and WR Eric Moulds, plus the prospect of RB Willis McGahee. There are too many question marks on defense and a brand-new coaching staff for the Bills to hang with the Jets or Patriots. (4) Miami Dolphins – Two offensive stars, RB Rickey Williams and WR David Boston, will not be suiting up this year, plus their quarterback situation is still up in the air. It will be a long season in Miami.

AFC CENTRAL – (1) Baltimore Ravens – RB Jamal Lewis and LB Ray Lewis anchor the offense and defense respectively, putting the Ravens among the AFC’s elite going into the regular season. QB Kyle Boller and a relatively anonymous group of receivers are the biggest question marks for a team that could make a run to the Super Bowl. (2) Pittsburgh Steelers – The defense is still decent, but the line backing core is not as good as previous years. WRs Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward have big play potential, plus new RB Duce Staley can take a lot of carries. (3) Cincinatti Bengals – Second-year coach Marvin Lewis looks to continue last year’s renaissance in the Queen City. RB Rudi Johnson and WR Chad Johnson will look to mesh with new starting QB Carson Palmer, while the defense tries to prove they did not play over their heads last year. (4) Cleveland Browns – Off-season pickup Jeff Garcia will solidify the quarterback position if he stays healthy, and Kellen Winslow could be the franchise tight end for years to come. The lines on both sides of the football are weak and that spells another losing season.

AFC SOUTH – (1) Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning has now established himself as the game’s top quarterback. He has RB Edgerrin James and WR Marvin Harrison as targets in Indy’s dynamic offense. The defense is the soft spot here; if they can be decent, Manning and the offense will carry this team far. (2) Tennessee Titans – Luckily, QB Steve McNair is still there. He elevates those around him and should have the Titans playing on a high level again in 2004. Supported by a strong line backing core, the Titans should be a playoff team but will not hang with the Colts or Pats due to lack of depth. (3) Jacksonville Jaguars – Could be this year’s dark horse contender if they played in another division. Their offensive line returns five starters, plus a defense that was second in the league in defending against the run last year. Inexperienced QB Byron Leftwich leaves the Jags out of the playoffs yet again. (4) Houston Texans – If this team wants to make any kind of run they will need the offensive line to give QB David Carr plenty of time to throw, not to mention helping out the run. The defense, especially in the secondary, still does not look like it will be able to handle top-level offenses.

AFC WEST – (1) Kansas City Chiefs – QB Trent Green, RB Priest Holmes, TE Tony Gonzalez and WR/KR Dante Hall headline a dominant offense. The Chiefs will win the western division on the strength of the points they will put up. When playoff time comes, a decent team will expose their weak defense and Coach Dick Vermeil’s squad will be watching the Super Bowl from the comfort of their own couches. (2) Denver Broncos – There are high expectations for QB Jake Plummer to lead this team, yet without the weapons he had last year. They have improved their secondary, but Denver is still susceptible to the run. They will miss the playoffs once again. (3) Oakland Raiders – Look for slight improvement from last year’s debacle. Rookie O-lineman Robert Gallery will be a beast, if not this year, then next. (4) San Diego Chargers – Top draft pick QB Philip Rivers will be manning the sidelines, at least to start the year. Aside from RB Ladainian Tomlinson, there isn’t much to get excited about here.

NFC EAST – (1) Philadelphia Eagles – High expectations here, but QB Donovan McNabb has not gotten it done in January. The defense is not great either. Best team in an average division. (2) Dallas Cowboys – Never underestimate coach Bill Parcells. If there is any life left in QB Vinny Testaverde, Parcells will get it out of him. Strong run defense will help. (3) Washington Redskins – Hall of Fame Coach Joe Gibbs will need more than a season to turn this around. They have decent defense and RB Clinton Portis will help, but the QB situation is a mess. (4) New York Giants – There are some weapons on offense, but the line is dreadful. Eli Manning should have the QB job by week 10. Excellent secondary but no run defense.

NFC NORTH – (1) Green Bay Packers – QB Brett Favre will lead the Pack in continuing their domination of this weak division. (2) Minnesota Vikings – If the defense can have another decent year, the Culpepper-Moss connection will keep the Vikings afloat. Line and running back issues will keep them from going too far. (3) Detroit Lions – A .500 record would be a nice goal for QB Joey Harrington & Co. They are still rebuilding and the front office needs to prove they are competent. (4) Chicago Bears – New Coach Lovie Smith and young QB Rex Grossman look to change the losing ways here. Without much else, it still looks like Chicago will be drafting high this April.

NFC SOUTH – (1) Carolina Panthers – They have not lost anything off the defensive line and line backing group that took them so far last year. DE Julius Peppers should still be a monster. If the Panthers fall off, it will be because QB Jake Delhomme and the offensive line let them down. (2) Atlanta Falcons – QB Michael Vick says he is healthy and primed to have a big season. If the defense can keep up, the Falcons will be a force. (3) New Orleans Saints – QB Aaron Brooks along with a strong group of receivers and backs could propel the Saints to big things this year. A weak pass defense will likely hold them back, though. (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Coach John Gruden looks to return to the heights he reached in 2002 with a very different group. Losing Warren Sapp hurts, and aside from FB Mike Alstott, QB Brad Johnson does not have a lot of help.

NFC WEST – (1) Seattle Seahawks – A strong defense plus RB Shaun Alexander equals wins for Seattle. They expect to make the playoffs, but the real test is in January as they have not won a playoff game since 1984. (2) St. Louis Rams – A lot of the same players will be there, but the Greatest Show on Turf will not return. Everyone is a year older, plus it is a lot harder to unleash those deep bombs with a questionable offensive line. (3) San Francisco 49ers – Tim Rattay and Ken Dorsey are competing for the starting QB job. This is the worst Niner team in recent memory. (4) Arizona Cardinals -- Head Coach Dennis Green wants to start a winning tradition. RB Emitt Smith wants to carry on his own tradition. Neither will happen this year. The Clippers of football.

AFC:
WILD CARD round: Ravens over Jets, Titans over Chiefs
DIV. round: Patriots over Titans, Colts over Ravens
Conference champ: Patriots over Colts
NFC:
WILD CARD: Falcons over Eagles, Panthers over Cowboys
DIV: Seahawks over Panthers, Falcons over Packers
Conference champ: Seahawks over Falcons

Super Bowl: Pats def. Seahawks