It’s that time again, kids. Sunday night, beginning at 8 p.m., the year’s biggest movie-award show will begin its ceremony. It should end sometime around 3 a.m. the second week of July. If you’ve ever wondered why the show’s so long, it’s because half the winners thank everyone they ever met and because the Academy decides to pay more tributes than the conquered cities of Ancient Greece.

But the Academy did well this year, honoring lesser-known films like City of God and Lost In Translation and rejecting grotesque Oscar-bait like Cold Mountain. Unfortunately, in the main categories, the winners are pretty much locked so watch for Billy Crystal playing the great host as usual, a live performance of “A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow” from A Mighty Wind because some people believe that endurance will ultimately make you stronger.

BEST ACTOR

Johnny Depp: Pirates of the Caribbean
Ben Kingsley: House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law: Cold Mountain
Bill Murray: Lost In Translation
Sean Penn: Mystic River

This is the only exciting race in a major category this year. While Murray and Penn had been the favorites going into this, Sunday’s Screen Actor’s Guild Awards showed that these two actors will most likely split the vote and allow Depp to take the win. If you’re shaking your head, you shouldn’t be. The same thing happened last year when Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis split the vote and Adrien Brody took home the statue for The Pianist. Not that Murray or Penn are undeserving of the award, but Depp has been neglected for too long. He’s one of the most versatile actors working today and his performance as Captain Jack Sparrow created one of the most iconic and memorable characters in years.

Who Will Win: Depp
Who Should Win: Depp
Who Got Screwed: Paul Giamatti (American Splendor)

BEST ACTRESS

Keisha Castle-Hughes: Whale Rider
Diane Keaton: Something’s Gotta Give
Samantha Morton: In America
Charlize Theron: Monster
Naomi Watts: 21 Grams

This and Best Supporting Actress continue to prove that there simply aren’t enough quality roles out there for women these days. But when one comes along, like the first female serial killer or a recovering drug addict who’s lost her husband and two daughters, then actresses like Charlize Theron and Naomi Watts can really hit it out of the park. Unfortunately, one-note performances by Keaton and Morton seemed stuffed in to fill the category. At least there’s no nomination for Nicole Kidman’s irritating Cold Mountain performance. In any case, this has been Theron’s award from day one. Academy members love it when pretty girls go ugly. Don’t ask why.

Who Will Win: Theron
Who Should Win: Theron or Watts
Who Got Screwed: Ultimately, most actresses working today.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alec Baldwin: The Cooler
Benecio del Toro: 21 Grams
Djimon Honsou: In America
Tim Robbins: Mystic River
Ken Watanabe: The Last Samurai

No one in this category is undeserving of the statue, but there are some actors without nominations who should be here. Where’s Albert Finney? Where’s Sean Astin? Still, del Toro gave a nuanced and powerful performance in 21 Grams and Watanabe basically carried the lackluster Last Samurai. And while Baldwin and Honsou are both fantastic actors, they’ve done stronger work in other films. Nevertheless, Robbins might as well have the statue on his mantle. There’s the possibility of an upset, but I wouldn’t count on it. It’s time to give Dufresne his due.

Who Will Win: Robbins
Who Should Win: del Toro or Watanabe
Who Got Screwed: Albert Finney (Big Fish), Sean Astin (Lord of the Rings: Return of the King)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Shohreh Aghdashloo: House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson: Pieces of April
Marcia Gay Harden: Mystic River
Holly Hunter: Thirteen
Renee Zellweger: Cold Mountain

Whereas last year this category contained nothing but deserving actresses, this year’s Best Supporting Actress race is a disaster. Marcia Gay Harden for just weeping and looking scared for two hours? Holly Hunter in a prolonged and idiotic after-school special? And the frontrunner, Renee Zellweger, for doing her best Kathy Bates impression? This is who the Academy thought was deserving this year? No. The only actress who really deserves to be in this category is Aghdashloo, who held her own against acting powerhouse Ben Kingsley. The blatent neglect of Hope Davis (American Splendor) and Alison Lohman (Matchstick Men) borders on disgusting.

Who Will Win: Zellweger (unfortunately)
Who Should Win: Aghdashloo
Who Got Screwed: Hope Davis (American Splendor), Alison Lohman (Matchstick Men)

BEST DIRECTOR

Ktia Lund and Fernando Meirelles: City of God
Peter Jackson: The Return of the King
Sofia Coppola: Lost In Translation
Peter Weir: Master and Commander
Clint Eastwood: Mystic River

I hate to give the Academy credit for anything, but it’s great that they chose to give notice to City of God, a foreign film that basically had no publicity or substantial box office sales. On the other hand, their nomination of Eastwood for his thoroughly unimpressive Mystic River is completely baffling. But it’s futile to look over the other nominees when it’s clear that this is Jackson’s year, and has been ever since the release of The Fellowship of the Ring. Anyone who’s looked over the documentaries on the extended edition DVDs knows that Jackson pulled off a Herculean task in managing to bring the spirit of Tolkien’s books to life without seriously compromising the source material. For him to lose in this category would be a travesty.

Who Will Win: Peter Jackson
Who Should Win: Peter Jackson
Who Got Screwed: Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini (American Splendor); Tim Burton (Big Fish)

BEST PICTURE
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost In Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

While it warms my cold, dead heart to see Cold Mountain absent from this category, I can’t help but shake my head at the inclusion of Seabiscuit, an enjoyable but forgettable film. I’ve already expressed my disdain over Mystic River multiple times, so I’ll just say that it doesn’t matter anyway because The Return of the King is going to win it. Again, the win was in the bag years before the film hit a single screen. Even those who find the films incredibly boring and silly cannot deny the achievement and significance of this trilogy. Peter Jackson and his cast and crew did what no one thought possible a few years ago. They made Ents walk and talk. They made kingdoms rise and fall. They made thousands of men and orcs collide. They made the trilogy of our generation and deserve every accolade they receive. They’ve earned it.

What Will Win: The Return of the King
What Should Win: The Return of the King
What Got Screwed: American Splendor, Big Fish