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d V   !" #$%c?@bM?@bM???@bM?@bM?@bM?@bM????@bM?X?@bMgrass_death_rate_30.0005\   ?@bM !" #$%fS@H Ot??@H Ot???YRegeneration_of_Grass_3TGrass_Regeneration_Rate_3*Grass_on_Commons*(Grass_K_3-Grass_on_Commons){acres/year}ZV]V Z V  ] V   !" #$%c?zG{?zG{???zG{?zG{?zG{?zG{????zG{?Z?zG{Grass_Regeneration_Rate_30.02Y   ?z G{!" #$%c?333333?333333???333333?333333?333333?333333????333333?[?333333Grass_Eaten_Per_Cow_30.3^   ?33 3333!" #$%f %@??@???@\Grass_Death_3&Grass_on_Commons^2*grass_death_rate_3VXV V   X  !" #$%c @Y;??@Y;???@Y?] Grass_K_3 K_stock_2Y !" #$%f 1@LP??@LP???^Grass_Eaten_32Cows_on_Commons*Grass_Eaten_Per_Cow_3{acres/year}J[V  J [  !" #$%s @Y@N??@Y@N@N@N???@Y?_@NFarmer_5's_Cows 100 {cows}b d!" #$%f I ????????`F4_Added_CowsJIF Marginal_Returns_on_Additional_Cow>MPL_per_Farmer THEN 1 ELSE 0 {cows}PTUJ$ P T       !" #$%g.??????a/Psychology of Commons Meets Reality of Commons!" #$%f I ????????bF5_Added_CowsJIF Marginal_Returns_on_Additional_Cow>MPL_per_Farmer THEN 1 ELSE 0 {cows}PT_J$ P T       !" #$% ce@]0??@]0@]0@]0????c@]0Cows_In_CommonsfIF Grass_on_Commons_SC> 0 THEN Your_Cows_Added+F2_Cows_Added_2+F3_Cows_Added_3+F4_Cows_Added_4 ELSE 0 rR~z< r    R ~        !" #$%s@Y@:??@Y@:@:@:???@Y?d@:Your_Cow_Stock100h d!" #$%s@Y@V??@Y@V@V@V???@Y?e@VFarmer_2's_Cows_2100g d!" #$%s@Y@U??@Y@U@U@U???@Y?f@UFarmer_3's_Cows_2100 d!" #$%f' ????????gfarmer_2_adding(IF weigh_the_factors>0.01 THEN 1 ELSE 0pe~, p > ?z G{       !" #$%f . ????????h Cows_You_Add/IF weigh_the_factors>SC_adjuster THEN 1 ELSE 0pdR$ p        !" #$%c$?????????????i?%Marginal_Returns_on_Additional_Cow_21k !" #$%f' ????????jfarmer_4_adding(IF weigh_the_factors>-0.01THEN 1 ELSE 0pq0 p - ?z G{        !" #$%c5??fX}????fX}?fX}?fX}?????k?fX}NET_Marginal_Benefit6Marginal_Returns_on_Additional_Cow_2-MPL_per_Farmer_2inp  i n  !" #$%cUU??UUUU???U? lU How_Socially_Conscious_Are_You?0 !" #$%c @@??@@@@???@?m@Number_of_Farmers_2 4 {farmers}n !" #$%c$?L???L?L?L????n?LMPL_per_Farmer_2%MPL_of_Commons_2/Number_of_Farmers_2mk   m  !" #$%c?Q?ˇ9M-???Q?ˇ9M-?ˇ9M-?ˇ9M-????Q?o?ˇ9M- Social_Incentive_Not_to_Add_Cow.0096*(Grass_on_Commons_SC-0)rp  ?* 0U2a r   !" #$%c4?zG¾H???zG¾H¾H¾H????zG?p¾Hweigh_the_factors5NET_Marginal_Benefit-Social_Incentive_Not_to_Add_Cowkogjh  k o  !" #$%s @Y@T??@Y@T@T@T???@Y?q@TFarmer_4's_Cows_2 100 {cows}j d!" #$%s @Y@I ξ??@Y@I ξ@I ξ@I ξ???@H9@Y?r@I ξGrass_on_Commons_SC 100 {acres}xucouxz d!& @Y@X@Xffff@Xd~@XP;a]@X=IK~@X1-O@Xi4@Xm2@XAFo@W@Wb=@WA @WΗw@W"*@Wڶ_y@W90@Wix6}@W⾾@W{rT@Wr{4Y@W^%|BZ@WWM@WC"x@W:@O@W${4@Wx}% @W 첈@W^@VlhT(@V_,@Vt@VŒ4@V3W"@V'H@Vc@V ٢`@Vq!o9@Vl|>|/@VT,@VL>p@V3Y8@V2U>@V]&@V@SAvͮ@SB[@S6gR@S7%\@S+-:@S+U;m@S ˘@SxTOz@Sh&)@S|N@S fQi@S@Rp R@R۲&e\@RG>w@%@R}:@Rap@R֕p!@Rŵ@Rk@Rktŗ@R@R0j@R:棗`@R~\X@Rvٌ@RC:|@RH_<51@R>Qf@Ry@Rs|w@Rl c@Rfqs$@R` @RY@RFh<@R?{@R8w@R28@R+8=v@R$`"@RP @R[T4@R!K@R ~Xx@R㹙]@Qܺm@Q@Q)E@Q.QG@Q-Q@@Q!+@Q(@Q%[@Qot@Qf@Qg@Q' f@Q+M@Qn@Q,4@Qp@QSҌ@Qn@QzR@e@Qr¡@Qk''@Qc@L@Q[ѭɖ@QT@QLNE@QD|.@Q<~@Q4q@Q,S@Q$O?@Q:k@QJ'@Q el@Q/a^@P @PW@P:cWÀ@P̑NuP@PP9=@P˼@P*Vf@P2@PV/v@Pσ<@P$@P:qn3,@P?@O٘@O҄F@Nzlp@Nw@NILb@Nfo!@N31xo@NsZB@NZ- @N@^/@N&̯@N 2@M@M/6@Mm1@ި@M@M8 )@Mfm˳@MI$T@M+X @M HǗ@LN@LΥJo@Lv*@L?@Llf1@LMx'|@L0RϨ@L i@K `@KvPb@K} @KZt@Kg%"@K%!@K`wH@Ksa3@KcA@KU&ue½@KG,pe>U@K9.@K-;^p@K!,ә0@K^SŤ@K S@K1XJH@J&}@J]6@JR_L@J|v @JCE@J4 @J t>l@J扁@JD"@JKy@Jn@J@Jڍ|@Ju@Jd]@Jb#@JRf@J|$a@JwOo@JrR@Jm@JiU@Jd{{@J`p@J\XfLn@JXF%q@JTS@JP~@JLƢL@JI)ՠ@JEz{p@JB>@J>6@J;:$ @J8 -&@J5׈B@J2|@J/@J,Lvl@J* xv@J'vlL@J$w^@J"W >V@JD@Jy^o@J!K@JX@J@l @Js%;@JT֮#@JC+R|@J>w[f@J F0 THEN 1 ELSE 0pf$ p       !" #$% Z x   pS'a D @y()* Graph 4+, 'Z xy@ 8F ()*+-hh @@@Ę.@@# ?. /01" "  'bN SD S s  K {()*+2ZZX In& n 314View the Model.,5M6.76.76.76.D76.76.76.76.76.76.7T Here is the basic model. For simplicity's sake, in this model multiple farmers have been reduced to one, but their motivation has not changed - they still add cows when the benefits outweigh the costs. Think of it as a group of ten identical farmers.6.!76.76. 7O This time, instead of caluculating benefits as an abstracted number representing "benefit," the benefit is measured in earnings per cow.6."76.7- The calculated loss in this model, rather than being "marginal productivity loss" is cold hard cash - something that may be more saliently felt than productivity loss. So, the farmers will add cows when the income from the cows outweighs the taxes due.6.$7" #The taxes are put in a trust fund.6.I76.H7, And these dollars are used to encourage the regeneration of the commons. Therefore, this model both discourages overuse of the commons, and creates a revenue source which can be used to restore the degraded commons. ' th@hH#`P()*#Exercise 2: Psychology vs. Reality+, 'G kw @ 8E ()*+8((@Yr #"@$@4@>@D@I@N@Q@T@V@Y@@@@&@6@D@@L@R@S@S@T .", ' t"@"_ _g()*_How does what you just saw play out in the field? The benefits for all farmers in the long run will be greatest if every farmer ignores his/her rational inclination to put as many cows as possible on the commons and instead holds out for the long term benefit. What happens if various farmers have different levels of social consciousness? In other words, what happens if each farmer has a different set of principles on which he/she bases decisions about adding additional cows? In this scenario, each of the 4 other farmers behaves differently. Some decide to stop adding cows to the commons almost as soon as productivity on the commons begins to wane, and others will continue adding cows until there is no commons remaining. Play around with your social consciousness (on a scale of -100 to 100). In this scenario, does it pay to look out for the long term?+, ' t%@%H!P()*!Exercise 4: Social Consciousness+, ' t !@ ! + v  3()*vAs exercise 4 shows, if people have different thresholds for social consciousness, altruism and a long term mindset aren't reasonable. So how can mutual coersion ensure that people really all make the smart decision for the long run? One form of mutual coersion that is often employed is taxation. In this exercise you will have the ability to raise and lower a tax rate per cow. How do different levels of taxation effect the number of cows that farmers choose to put on the commons and the amount of commons remaining? What tax rate do you think is best to maximize longterm monetary benefit as well as longterm commons health?+, ' t@7>?F ()*THE FLIGHT SIMULATOR+, 'D @ ()* Graph 2+, ' t @  8   @()*Exercise 5: The Cow Tax+, 'J)@## F? ()*+-?@@?2#9?.9/01" " , 'NJDJlw  Bt()*+2 . PA< Pn& n J P31:P~" 4To the Model!.,5D|6.K7KMf P NHere is farmer 1. Let's call him Joe. Farmer Joe can add cows to the commons.6.O7dv P wThis is Farmer Joe's flow of cows onto the Commons. How does he decide how many cows he wants to put onto the Commons?6.P7` P First, Farmer Joe figures out how much money he'll get per cow he puts on the Commons. Since Farmer Joe owns the cow, he'll get all the profit from selling it. Way to go, Farmer Joe! 6.W7: P But it isn't that simple. Farmer Joe also has to consider that when he puts a cow onto the Commons, the quality of the Commons is slightly degraded. In other words, if he puts a lot of cows on the Commons now, it's possible that he won't be able to put as many there in the future.6.S7OlV P mHowever, Farmer Joe is not the only farmer who puts cows onto these Commons. In fact, there are four others.6.T7r P Therefore, the degredation of the Commons that occurs due to Farmer Joe's additional cow is born by all farmer equally. This means that Farmer Joe himself only experiences a fraction of the damage that his cow inflicts on the Commons.6.J7kŽ P Since Farmer Joe gets all the profit from each additional cow but only has to worry about a fraction of the cost, he puts a lot of cows onto the Commons. The more cows, the more personal profit!6.L7?W P XMost likely, the four other farmers will come to the same conclusion as Farmer Joe did.6.M76.U76._76.N7T P Therefore, all of the farmers will choose to add as many cows as they can to the Commons so as to maximize their personal gain.6.Q76.`76.b76.V7NT P UBut what's happening to the grass on the Commons as Farmer Joe keeps on adding cows?6.Z7.$ P %Grass only regenerates so quickly...6.]7'. P /And the Commons can only hold so much grass...6.76. 76. 76.76 P (Not only does the commons deplete - the carrying capacity of the commons also suffers if it is put under too much stress. In other words, as the number of cows increases, the ability of the commons to hold cows decreases.)6.Y7LmR P nSo the ability of grass to regenerate more quickly to cater to the increased chomping of the cows is limited.6.\76.X76.[7 2+n P ,Cows always eat the same amount of grass...6.^7} P So the more cows Farmer Joe puts onto the Commons, the more grass is eaten. If Farmer Joe's cows start to eat the grass faster than it can regenerate, the Commons will no longer be able to support cows! There will be NO MORE COMMONS! ' t@+K 3S()*In exercise 1 above, it should become clear when each player is taking as many chips as possible, the way to maximize your personal number of chips is to take three chips each turn. However, this rational psychology results in tragedy when it is implemented in the real world. Picture a field. Many farmers all have access to this field and have the ability to graze their cows upon it. What happens if each farmer tries to maximize his/her personal income by putting as many cows as possible onto the commons? Does this really result in maximum profit over the long term? To see how this situation plays out, follow along as the model tells the story.+, ' t)@) {! ()*{What would change about the poker game in Exercise 1 if all of the players were educated about the unforeseen negative consequences of their rational decision to take 3 chips each turn? In this scenario, each other player takes one chip per turn. Again, adjust the slider to gauge the costs and benefits of choosing different numbers of chips. How many chips should you take to maximize short-term profit? How many should you take to maximize long-term profit? Is the long-term profit that is achievable in this scenario greater or less than that in Exercise 1? What happens to the stock of poker chips when you choose to take 1 chip?+, 'Z x@ 8 1()*+-@Y@P@@@#?./01" "  ' tL @L qJ$DyR()*$Exercise 1: The Rational Poker Game+, 'JJ@{()*+-?@@?2#+?.+/01" " , ' t*@* "()*There is something very wrong here. The rational psychology that would lead each farmer to place as many cows as possible on the commons results in a crash. The common field's ability to sustain those - or any subsequent - cows is quickly depleted. Short term rational decisions are in conflict with longterm monetary benefit, not to mention the psychological stress that results from having one fewer green field on planet earth. The farmers can't raise cows if there is no grass remaining, so is the initial rational decision really the smartest one for the long haul? If it isn't, how can people be convinced to add cows at a slower rate so as to maximize their profit in the long run?+, ' t~ @~  g vo()*Wecome to the poker game. Your first Tragedy of the Commons exercise will allow you to see the psychology of the Tragedy in action. Here's the way it works: In this game, five people can choose to take between 1 and 3 poker chips per turn from a central pot. At the end of each round, the number of chips left in the middle doubles. This exercise pits the rational urge to take as many chips as possible right away with the possibility of getting a bigger pot from which to take in the future. In this first scenario, all other player take 3 chips per turn, rationally trying to get as many chips as they can before the other players take more than their "fair share." How many chips should you take? Adjust the slider bar to graph the results of each possible decision. +, 'D p @ ^ !()* Graph 5+, 'D9 @'K()* Graph 1+, ' t+@+#()*Think about it:+, ' t)@)w$! ()*$Exercise 3: The Educated Poker Game+, 'J"@"8()*+-Y@Y2#l?.l/01" " , 'DI @<g()* Graph 3+, 'ZO@E()*+-@O@E @5 =p ?#R?.R/01" "  'Z@E()*+-@OR@Y@Uk @RzH?#r?.r/01" "  drmd9plwh1  T[    ' t x@ 5#=()*#Tragedy of the Commons - THE MODEL+, ' t;,@ ;, &3$()*&Communicating Actors - Take one each!+, ' t$@ $ )()*)Rational Actors - Take three! 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